Regardless of PAP’s belated action on the property market, asset enhancement will turn into a nightmare

(Below are possible future scenarios of the Singapore property market by ‘Sinkie‘.)

Too late for any easy solution now. PAPies have opened Pandora’s Box & created a monster in the late-1980s.

Either Singapore continues as (Minister) Wong has said i.e. 96% of HDB flats go to Zero, or Singapore embarks on QE to do mass-scale SERS and/or change laws to provide subsidized lease extension packages.
1st scenario is “You die your biz” and will have tens of thousands of people facing homelessness. Many other families after losing their HDB flats will only be able to afford to rent single bedrooms to squeeze their entire families in. It will be worse than the 1960s when families at least could squeeze into a whole 1-room flat.

As Singapore approaches 2065, you will see vertical slums being created as displaced families start renting bedrooms in other older HDB estates to save costs. Or squatting & camping in parks, nature reserves & under bridges and MRT tracks. It will be a housing disaster similar to the 1940s & 1950s, but much worse due to lack of open rural lands & overcrowding.

In this scenario it is very likely PAP will be overthrown quite early on — but successive govts will face similar fates if they don’t have “super leadership”, and Singapore will face upheavals with new govts coming & going.

PAPies are well aware of the above, and therefore the 2nd scenario will most likely be followed:-
QE for SERS and extension of HDB leases or conversion to renting. This will result in using up of hundreds of billions of our national reserves. The HDB market will be totally revamped and most likely no more secondary resale market allowed. This step is necessary to create a crash in HDB prices in order to lower the amount of spending required for SERS & lease extensions. There would be much more emphasis on renting instead of “buying”. HDB will go back to operating very similar to Singapore Investment Trust (SIT) and early-HDB in the 1940s & 1950s & early 1960s. I.E. same approach as public housing in other countries. Many HDB “owners” would be wiped out as resale becomes illegal. Those who buy high will be hit hard. This scenario will still be tough for many individual families, but for the country as a whole still much better to manage than the 1st scenario.

What about private properties? Well, for both scenarios, private properties will also be hard hit as HDB people won’t be able to afford upgrading. But I think majority of private property owners are smart enough to get out or cut loss before things deteriorate too much.

At the end of the day, property prices will sink to a low enough level & stabilise there.

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